01 — Verdict
Not vibe coding for amateurs. Not mature agent fleets either.
If you still feel this is “early stage” while also sensing it has been going on for a year or two, both instincts are correct — they describe different layers.
AI coding assistants are corporate infrastructure. Microsoft reported ~20 million GitHub Copilot users and that ~90% of the Fortune 100 use Copilot (FY2025 Q4 earnings). Enterprise seats, DPAs, SSO, and “code not used for training” tiers are table stakes. This is no longer a hobbyist story.
Agentic coding at scale is the early part. Assistants that autocomplete and chat inside an IDE are widespread. Agents that plan, edit across repos, open pull requests, call tools (including MCP), and act with limited supervision are in active pilots — but a large share never clear security, identity, audit, and value gates into durable production programs. Industry commentary in 2026 repeatedly cites pilot-to-production failure rates in the high double digits, with Gartner-type forecasts that a large share of agentic projects will be canceled by 2027 for cost, unclear value, or weak risk controls — not because models cannot write code.
So: big companies are adapting. Many already adapted on the assistant layer. The harder adaptation — governed autonomy inside the SDLC — is where the public writing thins out, because the work is procurement, platform engineering, and control design, not blog demos.